The Potential Impact of A Double Recession in 2020 /2021!
As far as the noise in the market place is concerned, the hottest topic over the past few months has been the advent of a serious double global recession. Economists, business executives, as well as government officials and policy makers throughout the international economic community have, on a number of occasions, warned that an ominous cloud of economic uncertainty particularly the Euro, is looming over many economies with the end result being economic catastrophe and a breakdown of the international financial system as we know it. In fact, on the basis of the overall lackluster performance of many developed and developing economies, some economists have even gone so far as to argue that from an international perspective, many of these economies are already in the midst of major recessions.
In fact, may economies are presently disequilibria, burgeoning foreign debt burdens, astronomical fiscal deficits with revenue resources rapidly drying up, while spending patterns seem to be racing out of control. Unemployment and inflation levels are at historically high levels; the wave of protectionism which has swept throughout the world has sharply contributed to weak commodity prices and dismal terms of trade.
COVID -19 will be around for a long time .This international and regional economic scenario highlights the harsh fact that we in The Bahamas should not consider our economy immune to the perils of a Double Recessions it should be immediately underscored that Recession show no discrimination or preference about which economy they attack.
The fragility of our number one industry, tourism, and an undeveloped export sector, make the Bahamas economy highly susceptible to a Double recession -induced problems, In fact, with a global out break The Coronavirus, particular in the United States, the resilience of the Bahamian economy to economic stag-nation will undoubtedly be tested. The ultimate impact of a deep recession could devastate the Bahamian economy, and policy makers should be aware of this and decide on a policy to provide economic impetus and insulation. At the very least, policy measures designed to strengthen the Bahamas economy will represent an awareness of the seriousness of the situation, as well as a concerted effort on the part of Bahamian authorities to address it. The only recourse to averting an economic crisis is through economic preparedness.
Other signs which indicate recession in the Bahamas context include rampant credit expansion overheating the economy and consequently placing an strain on the country’s inflation level as well as foreign reserves; tight liquidity forcing commercial bank to restrict loans and and instead develop an ultra -conservative loan posture, which will consequently contribute to slow down.
The Bahamas, due primarily to it’s smallness in size and wealth as country (relative to other country in the world )finds itself having to respond to the socio-economic environment outside of The Bahamas, therefore, The Bahamas and the course which it plots are are often dictated by exogenous factors especially now Coronavirus -19 we Bahamian must lift up the flag of responsibility holding it high and proudly, asking not so much what we can do for ourselves but on the contrary, asking what we as Bahamian can do for our country. It should be underscored by all that this is not an idealistic world in which we live; there is no utopia; there is no Shangri Lady, for our lives as individuals as well as country is real and will always be spotted with real trials and tribulations. What is necessary, however, is that we each show genuine interest in the welfare and future of The Bahamas.
